Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 2.435031 2.851755 3.313975 3.864075 4.500336 5.212531 6.069607
2025-11-16 1.727388 2.268350 2.935005 3.814247 4.940486 6.331649 8.177199
2025-11-23 1.303210 1.883864 2.665113 3.786819 5.348826 7.438635 10.437012
2025-11-30 1.082899 1.697990 2.589078 3.962611 6.012446 8.941051 13.420702
2025-12-07 0.887486 1.495879 2.436837 3.980639 6.428166 10.129834 16.113366
2025-12-14 0.735943 1.324426 2.289924 3.965237 6.768395 11.227437 18.795019
2025-12-21 0.623558 1.191698 2.175481 3.971713 7.127367 12.380336 21.692896
2025-12-28 0.581540 1.172155 2.244692 4.292556 8.046878 14.548171 26.517848
2026-01-04 0.515145 1.093521 2.193429 4.386249 8.574379 16.106311 30.482718
2026-01-11 0.462350 1.030588 2.159111 4.501839 9.150428 17.809123 34.897138
2026-01-18 0.408021 0.953712 2.083963 4.523677 9.545687 19.219708 38.929603
2026-01-25 0.348242 0.853382 1.944180 4.391371 9.614139 20.012176 41.867846
2026-02-01 0.289368 0.744996 1.772519 4.171889 9.487374 20.435324 44.194716
2026-02-08 0.250106 0.675044 1.673819 4.096404 9.656180 21.479402 47.921057
2026-02-15 0.219176 0.619204 1.597684 4.059308 9.902846 22.714411 52.197216
2026-02-22 0.205126 0.603955 1.615221 4.244212 10.676836 25.169300 59.380168
2026-03-01 0.183960 0.565069 1.567576 4.262423 11.061976 26.809345 64.950567
2026-03-08 0.163904 0.524985 1.509834 4.245617 11.359299 28.283515 70.314181
2026-03-15 0.147397 0.491670 1.464133 4.252396 11.715159 29.933472 76.273399
2026-03-22 0.145380 0.501943 1.539420 4.594675 12.973461 33.875493 88.118143
2026-03-29 0.134598 0.482405 1.527357 4.694608 13.610787 36.375778 96.734325
2026-04-05 0.125575 0.466668 1.523705 4.817902 14.327768 39.155372 106.349106
2026-04-12 0.114486 0.441531 1.487601 4.841193 14.773019 41.293606 114.575163